Dover, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS61 KPHI 260100
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
900 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinks south across the area late tonight into Saturday
morning as weak high pressure builds over New England. This front
will lift back north as a warm front on Sunday, ahead of another
cold front that will pass through later Sunday into Sunday night.
High pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday, before yet another
front passes through on Wednesday. High pressure returns to close
out next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The remaining portions of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Heat
Advisory were allowed to expire at 9 PM as the convection and
heat have waned with the loss of daytime heating. Some scattered
convection continues to linger, particularly across Delmarva.
An isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorm can`t be
completely ruled out in this area over the next couple of hours
but convection should completely clear the area by around
midnight.

The cold front responsible for Friday`s severe weather lingers
well north and won`t cross many areas until very late at night
or early Saturday morning, so most of the region will remain in
sticky 70s for lows.

Front takes on a more back-door orientation on Saturday, finally
allowing a noticeable air mass change. This should bring a more
stable and overall more pleasant day, but dew points likely
remain in the 70s across the Delmarva. 60s should reach Philly
and some parts of northern NJ might drop into the 50s. However,
the front will stall not far away, and as warmth and moisture
start overriding it, a few showers or a t-storm might develop
near where the boundary stalls close to our southern/western
border. Highs mostly 80s with heat indices in the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The Saturday night through Sunday night period will be the most
unsettled portion of the forecast as several impulses aloft will be
crossing through the area. Starting off with Saturday night, there
will likely be a complex of showers and thunderstorms moving east
toward the area Saturday night into early Sunday. PoPs have further
increased to 40-70% across much of the region, greatest over eastern
Pennsylvania. So, it does seem that this convection, albeit it will
be decaying, should reach our area for the Saturday night period.
Lows are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday and Sunday night remains the more active day of the weekend
as another low pressure system impacts the area with a more
pronounced shortwave aloft traversing across New England. This will
lead to a warm front lifting north across the area early on Sunday
before a cold front tracks through the area later Sunday into Sunday
night. After the convection from Saturday night dies off, there
should be a lull at least in the morning hours before a second round
of convection develops in the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
However, sunshine and instability looks rather limited as there
isn`t anticipated to be much clearing in between the two impulses.
As a result, there is not anticipated to be much (if any) of a
severe weather threat, instead, this looks to be more of a hydro
threat given that PWATs will be in excess of 2.0-2.3". Meaning, that
any given shower or thunderstorm will be capable of highly efficient
rainfall rates. However, storm motion should be relatively quick as
the front approaches, so looking at localized instances of flash
flooding possible. WPC has maintained the MARGINAL risk for
excessive rainfall for our entire area as a result. Convection will
begin to wane into Sunday evening as the cold front crosses through
the area later Sunday night. High temperatures will be in the 80s
with lows in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Little changes were made to the long term period as the first half
of the week will remain hot & humid whereas the latter half of the
week will be seasonably cool.

To start out the week, high pressure will be in control as the area
remains wedged in between frontal systems, so Monday is expected to
be mostly sunny and dry. Tuesday will feature increasing heat and
humidity causing chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon, especially north and west of the urban
corridor. By Wednesday, another cold front looks to be on the
horizon, crossing through the area later Wednesday night. This will
bring a more widespread opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to
the area. Some of the machine learning guidance is hinting at
Wednesday possibly featuring some severe weather, so this will need
to be monitored in the coming days. Otherwise, the Monday through
Wednesday period will feature heat indicies around/in excess of 100
degrees, so will likely need to evaluate potential heat headlines for
these days. As of now, the `worst` day in terms of heat looks to be
Tuesday.

By Thursday and Friday, should begin to see some improvement around
the area as the cold front moves offshore and strong high pressure
sets up over the Great Lakes. This will usher in a much cooler and
refreshing airmass from Canada, where our temperatures are expected
to be as much as 5-10 degrees below average. Other than a few post-
frontal showers around on Thursday, this period should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Still some lingering convection will result in a
period of VCTS to start for KRDG/KABE/KTTN. That should clear
out after 01z though, with VFR taking over for the rest of the
night. Cannot rule out some patchy fog, reducing visibility down
to MVFR levels. Highest chance (around 30%) at KRDG between
07z-11z, with around a 10-15% chance elsewhere. Added a TEMPO
group to KRDG`s TAF as a result, and kept everyone else
prevailing VFR. Winds go from northwest to eventually
north/northeast by Saturday morning and will hover around 3 to
8 kt or so. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...Primarily VFR, though a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible (20-30%) chance in the afternoon at all
terminals. Given low chances and low confidence, kept any
mention of thunder out of the TAFs for now. Winds out of the
E/NE in the morning around 5-10 kt, becoming S/SE in the
afternoon, still around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday night...Mainly VFR conditions expected
with sub-VFR conditions probable at times. Several chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday.

Monday through Monday night...VFR. No significant weather expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR with localized times of
sub-VFR conditions. A chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday and especially on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are expected through Saturday. South-
southwest winds around 10-15 kt rest of today. Winds may
occasionally gust up to 20 kt this evening along the northern
NJ coast. Seas around 2-3 feet. Winds shift northeast overnight
into Saturday at 10-15 kts with seas remaining 2-3 ft.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.
Winds should largely remain 15 kt or less with seas around 2-3 feet.
A chance for showers and thunderstorms expected on Saturday night,
Sunday and Wednesday. Otherwise, fair weather.

Rip Currents...

For Saturday, the surface winds become northeast to east 10 to
20 mph. Breaking waves in the surf zone will average again
around 2 to 3 feet. With the onshore flow and 2 to 3 foot
breakers, elected with a MODERATE risk even with a period of 5
to 8 seconds. Winds are lighter and seas are lower at the
Delaware Beaches. Thus, a LOW risk for rip currents is in place
for Delaware.

For Sunday, flow turns more southerly but light, only around 5
to 10 MPH. Seas decrease and breakers of only 1 to 2 feet are
expected. Period will remain 5 to 8 seconds. As a result, a LOW
risk for rip currents is in place at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to the new moon occuring on July 24, some spotty minor
coastal flooding may occur again with the high tide tonight
into Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday. The most likely
locations for any spotty minor tidal flooding are along the
Delaware Bay, as well as around Cape May. No coastal flooding is
anticipated along the northeastern portion of Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs were tied at Reading and Trenton with record highs
broken at Allentown and Philadelphia. Rain cooled air will make
it hard for any record high maximums to be set for July 26th.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva
NEAR TERM...AKL/Hoeflich/RCM
SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/Hoeflich/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI
CLIMATE...WFO PHI